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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherGaspé, QC

Rain is likely in Gaspé on Monday

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Gaspé Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m. EDT; 2 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Gaspé’s (EDT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Gaspé this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (7 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Tuesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Friday (4 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (7 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.). Drier: Wed, Sat (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Gaspé get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.43 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 4 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 1 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Gaspé?
Gusts over 30 mph: 5 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 8 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 28 mph, Mon., Oct. 5, 8 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Gaspé?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 42°F (Sun 8 a.m.) to 64°F (Thu 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Gaspé?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Gaspé this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inTue 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inTue 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)7 in 102 in 100.03 in · <1 in 109 mph50°F
Tue 297 in 101 in 100.10 in · <1 in 107 mph49°F–51°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 100.10 in · <1 in 107 mph48°F–55°F
Thu 12 in 10<1 in 100.12 in · <1 in 1023 mph51°F–64°F
Fri 24 in 102 in 100.16 in · 1 in 1017 mph51°F–59°F
Sat 32 in 10<1 in 100.19 in · 1 in 1026 mph46°F–50°F
Sun 43 in 101 in 100.26 in · 2 in 1023 mph42°F–48°F
Mon 5 (part)7 in 104 in 100.43 in · 4 in 1028 mph · 1 in 10 >40 mph47°F–51°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Gaspé

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Gaspé this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Gaspé’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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