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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherFunchal (Madeira), Portugal

Rain is likely in Funchal on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Funchal Tue 7 p.m.–1 a.m. GMT+1.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 12:03 a.m. GMT+1 · times are Funchal’s (GMT+1)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Funchal this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 7 p.m.–1 a.m.); Wednesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 1–7 a.m.). Drier: Fri, Sat, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+1.
How much rain will Funchal get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 7 p.m. GMT+1 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 3.7 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 1 a.m. Fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm in total.
How windy will it get in Funchal?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 37 km/h, Thu 1 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Funchal?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 20°C (Sat 7 a.m.) to 23°C (Tue 7 p.m.) GMT+1. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Funchal?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Funchal this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmWed 1–7 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmWed 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 1–7 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 1–7 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 1–7 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 1–7 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 1–7 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+1.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29nearly all<1 in 100.7 mm · <1 in 1030 km/h23°C–23°C
Wed 307 in 10<1 in 101.7 mm · <1 in 1033 km/h21°C–23°C
Thu 13 in 10<1 in 102.3 mm · <1 in 1037 km/h21°C–21°C
Fri 21 in 10<1 in 102.7 mm · <1 in 1035 km/h21°C–21°C
Sat 3<1 in 10<1 in 103.0 mm · <1 in 1033 km/h20°C–21°C
Sun 41 in 10<1 in 103.2 mm · <1 in 1031 km/h21°C–21°C
Mon 5 (part)1 in 10<1 in 103.7 mm · <1 in 1024 km/h21°C–22°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 1 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Funchal

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Funchal this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Funchal’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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