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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherFredericton, NB

Rain is likely in Fredericton on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Fredericton Mon 9 p.m.–3 a.m. ADT; 7 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more Tue 3–9 a.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 8:03 p.m. ADT · times are Fredericton’s (ADT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Fredericton this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 9 p.m.–3 a.m.); Friday (5 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 p.m.); Saturday (6 in 10 forecasts, 9 p.m.–3 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (7 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 a.m.). Drier: Wed, Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are ADT.
How much rain will Fredericton get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 3 p.m. ADT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.84 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 9 p.m. 8 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Fredericton?
Gusts over 30 mph: 2 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 3 a.m. ADT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 23 mph, Mon., Oct. 5, 3 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Fredericton?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 40°F (Sun 3 a.m.) to 74°F (Thu 3 p.m.) ADT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Fredericton?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Fredericton this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inTue 3–9 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.15 inTue 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inTue 3–9 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 3–9 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 3–9 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inMon 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, ADT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)–––22 mph52°F
Tue 29nearly all7 in 100.30 in · 3 in 1019 mph53°F–58°F
Wed 301 in 10<1 in 100.30 in · 3 in 1015 mph52°F–69°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 100.30 in · 3 in 1023 mph52°F–74°F
Fri 25 in 101 in 100.34 in · 3 in 1021 mph61°F–70°F
Sat 36 in 102 in 100.50 in · 5 in 1020 mph47°F–60°F
Sun 42 in 101 in 100.55 in · 6 in 1018 mph40°F–58°F
Mon 5 (part)7 in 105 in 100.84 in · 8 in 1022 mph47°F–57°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 9 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Fredericton

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Fredericton this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Fredericton’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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