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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherFort Lauderdale, FL

Rain is likely in Fort Lauderdale on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Fort Lauderdale Tue 2–8 p.m. EDT; 5 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Fort Lauderdale’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Fort Lauderdale this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Wednesday (8 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Friday (7 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Fort Lauderdale get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 1.4 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more in total; 1 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more.
How windy will it get in Fort Lauderdale?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 21 mph, Fri 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Fort Lauderdale?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 78°F (Tue 8 p.m.) to 86°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Fort Lauderdale?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Fort Lauderdale this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inTue 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inWed 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inThu 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.11 inThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inThu 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inFri 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inFri 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 108 mph82°F
Tue 29nearly all5 in 100.29 in · 2 in 109 mph78°F–83°F
Wed 308 in 103 in 100.58 in · 6 in 1013 mph79°F–84°F
Thu 19 in 106 in 101.1 in · 8 in 1019 mph81°F–85°F
Fri 27 in 101 in 101.1 in · 9 in 1021 mph83°F–86°F
Sat 37 in 101 in 101.2 in · 9 in 1020 mph83°F–86°F
Sun 47 in 101 in 101.3 in · 9 in 1017 mph82°F–86°F
Mon 5 (part)6 in 101 in 101.4 in · nearly all13 mph82°F–85°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Fort Lauderdale

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Fort Lauderdale this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Fort Lauderdale’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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