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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherDenver, CO

Rain is likely in Denver on Wednesday

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Denver Wed 6 a.m.–noon MDT; 4 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more Wed noon–6 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 5:03 p.m. MDT · times are Denver’s (MDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Denver this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Wednesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 6 a.m.–noon); Thursday (4 in 10 forecasts, midnight–6 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Fri, Sat, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are MDT.
How much rain will Denver get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, noon MDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.25 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 6 p.m. 4 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 2 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Denver?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 13 mph, Fri 6 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Denver?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 50°F (Fri 6 a.m.) to 76°F (Mon., Oct. 5, noon) MDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Denver?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Denver this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue midnight–6 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed midnight–6 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 a.m.–noon: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inWed noon–6 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inWed 6 p.m.–midnight: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu midnight–6 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 a.m.–noon: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat noon–6 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 p.m.–midnight: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun noon–6 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 p.m.–midnight: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, MDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1010 mph68°F
Tue 291 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 109 mph59°F–67°F
Wed 307 in 104 in 100.13 in · 3 in 1012 mph56°F–61°F
Thu 14 in 102 in 100.14 in · 3 in 1011 mph53°F–65°F
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 100.14 in · 3 in 1013 mph50°F–72°F
Sat 31 in 10<1 in 100.14 in · 4 in 1012 mph56°F–75°F
Sun 41 in 10<1 in 100.25 in · 4 in 109 mph52°F–69°F
Mon 5 (part)<1 in 10<1 in 100.25 in · 4 in 107 mph54°F–76°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 6 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Denver

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Denver this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Denver’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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