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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherDaytona Beach, FL

Rain is possible in Daytona Beach on Tuesday

6 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Daytona Beach Tue 8 p.m.–2 a.m. EDT.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Daytona Beach’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Daytona Beach this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Wednesday (4 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Thursday (5 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.); Friday (5 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Daytona Beach get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.35 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 3 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total.
How windy will it get in Daytona Beach?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 16 mph, Sat 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Daytona Beach?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 76°F (Tue 8 a.m.) to 86°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Daytona Beach?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Daytona Beach this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inWed 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1015 mph79°F
Tue 296 in 10<1 in 100.04 in · <1 in 1015 mph76°F–85°F
Wed 304 in 10<1 in 100.09 in · <1 in 1013 mph77°F–84°F
Thu 15 in 101 in 100.13 in · <1 in 1014 mph78°F–86°F
Fri 25 in 101 in 100.17 in · 1 in 1016 mph80°F–86°F
Sat 34 in 101 in 100.23 in · 1 in 1016 mph80°F–86°F
Sun 45 in 101 in 100.32 in · 3 in 1014 mph79°F–85°F
Mon 5 (part)5 in 101 in 100.35 in · 3 in 1012 mph78°F–86°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Daytona Beach

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Daytona Beach this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Daytona Beach’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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