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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherDallas, TX

Rain is likely in Dallas on Wednesday

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Dallas Wed 7 p.m.–1 a.m. CDT; 4 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 6:03 p.m. CDT · times are Dallas’s (CDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Dallas this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (5 in 10 forecasts, 7 p.m.–1 a.m.); Wednesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 7 p.m.–1 a.m.); Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 1–7 p.m.); Friday (9 in 10 forecasts, 1–7 a.m.). Drier: Tue (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are CDT.
How much rain will Dallas get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 1 p.m. CDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 2.8 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 7 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 4 in or more.
How windy will it get in Dallas?
Gusts over 30 mph: 7 in 10 forecasts at Thu 1 a.m. CDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 31 mph, Thu 1 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Dallas?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 68°F (Mon., Oct. 5, 7 a.m.) to 90°F (Tue 7 p.m.) CDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Dallas?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Dallas this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inThu 1–7 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inThu 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.30 inThu 1–7 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.23 inThu 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.34 inFri 1–7 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.24 inFri 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inFri 1–7 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inFri 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inSat 1–7 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inSat 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 1–7 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSat 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 1–7 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSun 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSun 1–7 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSun 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 1–7 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)5 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1013 mph88°F
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1023 mph76°F–90°F
Wed 307 in 104 in 100.06 in · 2 in 1030 mph76°F–89°F
Thu 19 in 108 in 101.5 in · 9 in 1031 mph78°F–83°F
Fri 29 in 107 in 102.1 in · nearly all18 mph74°F–81°F
Sat 37 in 104 in 102.6 in · nearly all12 mph72°F–77°F
Sun 47 in 102 in 102.8 in · nearly all19 mph72°F–78°F
Mon 5 (part)3 in 101 in 102.8 in · nearly all22 mph68°F–75°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 7 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Dallas

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Dallas this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Dallas’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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