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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherCasablanca, Morocco

Rain is possible in Casablanca on Friday

4 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Casablanca Fri 6 a.m.–noon GMT+0.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 11:03 p.m. GMT+0 · times are Casablanca’s (GMT+0)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Casablanca this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Friday (4 in 10 forecasts, 6 a.m.–noon). Drier: Tue, Wed, Sat (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+0.
How much rain will Casablanca get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 6 p.m. GMT+0 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 2.1 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue midnight. Fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm in total.
How windy will it get in Casablanca?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 27 km/h, Wed 6 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Casablanca?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 20°C (Thu 6 a.m.) to 27°C (Mon., Oct. 5, noon) GMT+0. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Casablanca?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Casablanca this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 p.m.–midnight: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri midnight–6 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 a.m.–noon: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri noon–6 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 p.m.–midnight: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat midnight–6 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 a.m.–noon: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat noon–6 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 p.m.–midnight: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun midnight–6 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 a.m.–noon: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun noon–6 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 p.m.–midnight: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon midnight–6 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 6 a.m.–noon: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon noon–6 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+0.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 km/h21°C–27°C
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1027 km/h21°C–27°C
Thu 13 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1024 km/h20°C–25°C
Fri 24 in 10<1 in 100.5 mm · <1 in 1015 km/h20°C–25°C
Sat 32 in 101 in 100.7 mm · <1 in 1015 km/h21°C–27°C
Sun 43 in 10<1 in 101.4 mm · <1 in 1022 km/h22°C–27°C
Mon 5 (part)3 in 10<1 in 102.1 mm · <1 in 1019 km/h23°C–27°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue midnight, and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Casablanca

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Casablanca this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Casablanca’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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