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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherCalgary, AB

Rain is likely in Calgary on Wednesday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Calgary Wed midnight–6 a.m. MDT; 7 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 5:03 p.m. MDT · times are Calgary’s (MDT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Calgary this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (6 in 10 forecasts, 6 p.m.–midnight); Wednesday (9 in 10 forecasts, midnight–6 a.m.). Drier: Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are MDT.
How much rain will Calgary get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, noon MDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.26 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 6 p.m. 1 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total.
How windy will it get in Calgary?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 17 mph, Tue midnight. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Calgary?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 38°F (Fri 6 a.m.) to 61°F (Mon 6 p.m.) MDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Calgary?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Calgary this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue noon–6 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 p.m.–midnight: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inWed midnight–6 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.14 inWed 6 a.m.–noon: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed noon–6 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 a.m.–noon: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu noon–6 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 p.m.–midnight: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat midnight–6 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, MDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1011 mph61°F
Tue 296 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1017 mph47°F–57°F
Wed 309 in 107 in 100.25 in · 1 in 1011 mph40°F–51°F
Thu 11 in 10<1 in 100.25 in · 1 in 109 mph39°F–52°F
Fri 21 in 10<1 in 100.25 in · 1 in 1011 mph38°F–53°F
Sat 31 in 10<1 in 100.26 in · 1 in 109 mph39°F–52°F
Sun 4<1 in 10<1 in 100.26 in · 1 in 1016 mph39°F–56°F
Mon 5 (part)<1 in 10<1 in 100.26 in · 1 in 108 mph43°F–59°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 6 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Calgary

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Calgary this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Calgary’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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