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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherBurlington, VT

Rain is likely in Burlington on Monday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Burlington Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m. EDT.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Burlington’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Burlington this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (9 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Friday (7 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Sunday, Oct. 4 (7 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (5 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Drier: Wed, Sat (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Burlington get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.41 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 5 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 2 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Burlington?
Gusts over 30 mph: 1 in 10 forecasts at Sun., Oct. 4, 2 p.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 23 mph, Sun., Oct. 4, 8 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Burlington?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 43°F (Sun 2 a.m.) to 69°F (Wed 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Burlington?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Burlington this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inTue 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)9 in 101 in 100.02 in · <1 in 105 mph54°F
Tue 292 in 10<1 in 100.03 in · <1 in 1010 mph49°F–57°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 100.03 in · <1 in 107 mph49°F–69°F
Thu 13 in 10<1 in 100.06 in · <1 in 1017 mph56°F–67°F
Fri 27 in 102 in 100.21 in · 1 in 1013 mph57°F–65°F
Sat 31 in 10<1 in 100.23 in · 1 in 1011 mph45°F–60°F
Sun 47 in 104 in 100.37 in · 4 in 1023 mph43°F–57°F
Mon 5 (part)5 in 102 in 100.41 in · 5 in 1022 mph47°F–54°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Burlington

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Burlington this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Burlington’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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