StormlinesStorm tracks, explained
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

Sections

View
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherBuenos Aires, Argentina

Rain is likely in Buenos Aires on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Buenos Aires Tue 3–9 a.m. GMT-3; nearly all bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 8:03 p.m. GMT-3 · times are Buenos Aires’s (GMT-3)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Buenos Aires this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 3–9 a.m.); Thursday (4 in 10 forecasts, 9 p.m.–3 a.m.); Friday (4 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 p.m.); Saturday (9 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 a.m.). Drier: Wed, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT-3.
How much rain will Buenos Aires get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 3 p.m. GMT-3 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 30 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 9 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more in total.
How windy will it get in Buenos Aires?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 2 in 10 forecasts at Sat 3 a.m. GMT-3. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 40 km/h, Tue 3 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Buenos Aires?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 11°C (Fri 3 a.m.) to 20°C (Mon., Oct. 5, 3 p.m.) GMT-3. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Buenos Aires?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Buenos Aires this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.5 mmTue 3–9 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 9.3 mmTue 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmTue 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmSat 3–9 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.0 mmSat 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmSat 3–9 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 3–9 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT-3.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)–––23 km/h17°C
Tue 29nearly allnearly all13 mm · 5 in 1040 km/h16°C–18°C
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 1013 mm · 5 in 1029 km/h12°C–17°C
Thu 14 in 101 in 1014 mm · 6 in 1020 km/h12°C–16°C
Fri 24 in 101 in 1015 mm · 7 in 1039 km/h11°C–17°C
Sat 39 in 106 in 1028 mm · 9 in 1039 km/h14°C–17°C
Sun 4<1 in 10<1 in 1029 mm · 9 in 1018 km/h13°C–20°C
Mon 5 (part)2 in 10<1 in 1030 mm · 9 in 1017 km/h14°C–20°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 9 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Buenos Aires

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Buenos Aires this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Buenos Aires’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

Other cities →