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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherBristol, United Kingdom

Rain is likely in Bristol on Tuesday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Bristol Tue 7 p.m.–1 a.m. BST.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 12:03 a.m. BST · times are Bristol’s (BST)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Bristol this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 7 p.m.–1 a.m.); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, 1–7 a.m.). Drier: Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are BST.
How much rain will Bristol get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 7 p.m. BST (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 6.2 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 1 a.m. Fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm in total.
How windy will it get in Bristol?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 9 in 10 forecasts at Tue 7 p.m. BST. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 53 km/h, Tue 7 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Bristol?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 9°C (Sun 7 a.m.) to 22°C (Tue 1 p.m.) BST. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Bristol?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Bristol this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 1–7 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmTue 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmWed 1–7 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.5 mmWed 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 1–7 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 1–7 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 1–7 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 1–7 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, BST.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 299 in 101 in 101.3 mm · <1 in 1053 km/h11°C–22°C
Wed 30nearly all6 in 106.0 mm · 1 in 1044 km/h16°C–20°C
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 106.0 mm · 1 in 1024 km/h10°C–18°C
Fri 22 in 10<1 in 106.0 mm · 1 in 1022 km/h11°C–19°C
Sat 31 in 10<1 in 106.2 mm · 1 in 109 km/h10°C–18°C
Sun 4<1 in 10<1 in 106.2 mm · 1 in 1013 km/h9°C–18°C
Mon 5 (part)1 in 10<1 in 106.2 mm · 1 in 1018 km/h9°C–19°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 1 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Bristol

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Bristol this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Bristol’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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