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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherBrisbane, Australia

Rain is possible in Brisbane on Saturday

5 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Brisbane Sat 4–10 p.m. GMT+10; 2 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 9:03 a.m. GMT+10 · times are Brisbane’s (GMT+10)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Brisbane this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Saturday (5 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Sunday (5 in 10 forecasts, 10 p.m.–4 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (4 in 10 forecasts, 10 a.m.–4 p.m.). Drier: Wed, Thu, Fri (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+10.
How much rain will Brisbane get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 4 a.m. GMT+10 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 6.4 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 10 a.m. 1 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total.
How windy will it get in Brisbane?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 26 km/h, Tue 10 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Brisbane?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 13°C (Wed 4 a.m.) to 24°C (Sat 10 a.m.) GMT+10. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Brisbane?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Brisbane this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 4–10 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 4–10 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 4–10 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 4–10 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+10.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1026 km/h15°C–20°C
Wed 302 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 km/h13°C–21°C
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1018 km/h13°C–22°C
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1022 km/h14°C–23°C
Sat 35 in 102 in 101.0 mm · <1 in 1024 km/h15°C–24°C
Sun 45 in 101 in 102.3 mm · <1 in 1020 km/h17°C–23°C
Mon 54 in 102 in 104.0 mm · 1 in 1019 km/h17°C–23°C
Tue 6 (part)3 in 101 in 106.4 mm · 1 in 108 km/h17°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 10 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Brisbane

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Brisbane this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Brisbane’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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