StormlinesStorm tracks, explained
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

Sections

View
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherBar Harbor, ME

Rain is likely in Bar Harbor on Monday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Bar Harbor Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m. EDT; 5 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Bar Harbor’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Bar Harbor this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (nearly all forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Friday (5 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Saturday (4 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Drier: Wed, Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Bar Harbor get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.84 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 8 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Bar Harbor?
Gusts over 30 mph: 3 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 2 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 25 mph, Mon., Oct. 5, 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Bar Harbor?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 47°F (Sun 2 a.m.) to 67°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Bar Harbor?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Bar Harbor this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inTue 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.08 inTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inTue 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.13 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)nearly all5 in 100.07 in · <1 in 1021 mph55°F
Tue 29nearly all4 in 100.30 in · 1 in 1019 mph56°F–59°F
Wed 301 in 10<1 in 100.30 in · 1 in 1017 mph55°F–65°F
Thu 11 in 10<1 in 100.31 in · 1 in 1020 mph55°F–65°F
Fri 25 in 102 in 100.40 in · 2 in 1021 mph61°F–67°F
Sat 34 in 101 in 100.45 in · 4 in 1023 mph52°F–60°F
Sun 46 in 105 in 100.60 in · 6 in 1022 mph47°F–55°F
Mon 5 (part)6 in 103 in 100.84 in · 8 in 1025 mph · 1 in 10 >40 mph53°F–58°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Bar Harbor

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Bar Harbor this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Bar Harbor’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

Other cities →