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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherAnchorage, AK

Rain is likely in Anchorage on Tuesday

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Anchorage Tue 10 a.m.–4 p.m. AKDT; 1 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more Tue 4–10 a.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 3:03 p.m. AKDT · times are Anchorage’s (AKDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Anchorage this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 10 a.m.–4 p.m.); Wednesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Thursday (7 in 10 forecasts, 10 p.m.–4 a.m.); Saturday (5 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.). Drier: Fri (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are AKDT.
How much rain will Anchorage get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 10 a.m. AKDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.50 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 4 p.m. 6 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 1 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
Will it snow in Anchorage?
Possibly. The best chance is Wed 4–10 p.m. AKDT, when 3 in 10 forecasts bring snow (at least 1 mm of melted snow in six hours, very roughly half an inch of snow). A coarse global model is least reliable about snow: check your local forecast.
How windy will it get in Anchorage?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 10 mph, Sat 4 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Anchorage?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 31°F (Fri 4 a.m.) to 49°F (Mon 4 p.m.) AKDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Anchorage?
Gulf of Alaska low: 5 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 100 miles, closest most likely Wed 10 a.m. AKDT. North Pacific low east of the Aleutians: 1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 100 miles, closest most likely Sun., Oct. 4, 10 p.m. AKDT.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 4–10 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inTue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inTue 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inWed 4–10 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inThu 4–10 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 4–10 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 4–10 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inMon 4–10 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, AKDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreChance of snowTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 105 mph42°F–49°F
Tue 297 in 101 in 10<1 in 100.06 in · <1 in 107 mph39°F–44°F
Wed 309 in 102 in 103 in 100.19 in · 1 in 105 mph35°F–38°F
Thu 17 in 101 in 101 in 100.23 in · 1 in 105 mph34°F–38°F
Fri 21 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 100.23 in · 1 in 107 mph31°F–42°F
Sat 35 in 101 in 10<1 in 100.30 in · 1 in 1010 mph34°F–42°F
Sun 47 in 102 in 10<1 in 100.43 in · 4 in 107 mph38°F–42°F
Mon 5 (part)6 in 102 in 101 in 100.50 in · 6 in 104 mph40°F–40°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 4 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Anchorage

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Anchorage’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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