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HurricaneNorth Pacific

Hurricane Nolo holds near 984 mb as it heads west

Tropical system near 984 mb now, about 350 mi S of Honolulu; nearly all forecasts show it.

Updated Sun., Sept. 27, 6:48 p.m. UTC · 181 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment CanadaOne of the 5 forecast models is running late; its previous run is used.: high

Tropical system near 984 mb now, about 350 mi S of Honolulu; nearly all forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 18Z – Sun 27 Sep 12Z model runs · updated Sun., Sept. 27, 6:48 p.m. UTC

Where is Hurricane Nolo going?
The centre is about 350 miles south of Honolulu, moving west at about 10 mph. The most likely path takes it about 400 miles west of Honolulu by Wednesday evening.
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: high. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path. Little has changed since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Largely, yes. By Tuesday evening the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 40 miles southeast of the physics ensembles’. At its deepest, the AI ensembles take it to about 980 and the physics ensembles to about 976 mb.

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 9 p.m. Sunday, the centre was about 350 miles south of Honolulu, with a central pressure near 984 .

How sure. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path. Little has changed since the previous run.1

How strong. Forecasts keep its central pressure near 987 through Tuesday. Three in 10 forecasts have it .

What’s uncertain

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Wednesday. By Tuesday evening, Oct. 6, the is about 2,150 miles across.2

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 350 miles south of Honolulu.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
29 of 3112Z
arrived 2 h 50 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
51 of 5106Z
arrived 6 h 33 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
51 of 5112Z
arrived 1 h 44 min ago
Latest run
NOAA
31 of 3118Z
arrived 19 h 25 min ago
Older run (newer ones delayed)
Environment Canada
19 of 2112Z
arrived 3 h 13 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. Bering Sea lowLikely to pass 15–180 mi from Kodiak Sun evening; 8 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  2. Typhoon SurigaeCould pass near Tokyo Thu afternoon; 1 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  3. September Nor’easterLikely to pass 30–70 mi SE of Islip (Long Island) Mon afternoon; nearly all forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  4. North Atlantic low south of IcelandNear Reykjavík now; 1 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  5. Southern Ocean low in the South AtlanticVery deep low bottoming out near 929 mb Mon morning, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 29 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 100 miles of a spot at any time in the next 10 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-0092.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines from Natural Earth.

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, ECMWF, Environment Canada

Full forecast
Through Tue 6 p.m. UTC