Forecast to form Sun afternoon, near 11°N 138°W; 7 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC

Where will the East Pacific tropical system form?: Forecasts that develop it have the centre forming near 11°N 138°W on Sunday afternoon. The most likely path takes it near 15°N 129°W by Wednesday afternoon.
How sure is the forecast?: High confidence. 71 of 103 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path (agreement 69 out of 100).
Do the AI and physics models agree?: Largely, yes. By Tuesday afternoon the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 40 kilometres northwest of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 1003 at its deepest.

What we know

Where it forms. The forecasts that show it have the centre taking shape near 11°N 138°W on Sunday afternoon, at about 1,005 .

How sure. 71 of 103 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path.¹

How strong. Forecasts keep its central pressure near 1,004 through Tuesday. Fewer than one in 10 forecasts have it .

Whether it forms. 71 of 103 develop it; the rest do not. Storms that exist only in the forecast can change a lot from run to run.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Monday. By Thursday afternoon, the is about 1,300 kilometres across.²

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays near 11°N 138°W.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in