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Tropical system · Forecasts splitNorth Atlantic tropical system · L-2026-0075

The North Atlantic tropical system could take a eastern track — or take a western track

Tropical system bottoming out near 1006 hPa Sun morning, near 21°N 23°W; all 52 ensemble forecasts show it.

Updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:54 p.m. UTC · 52 from NOAA and Environment CanadaHigh confidence

This storm is no longer in our active list. This is its last forecast, from the Sat 26 Sep 12Z run.

Tropical system bottoming out near 1006 hPa Sun morning, near 21°N 23°W; all 52 ensemble forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:54 p.m. UTC

Where is the North Atlantic tropical system going?
The centre is near 20°N 23°W, moving northwest at about 10 km/h. The forecasts split: 6 in 10 take a eastern track, while 4 in 10 take a western track.
How sure is the forecast?
High confidence. All 52 show the storm, and they closely on its path (agreement 80 out of 100).

What we know

Where it is. At 10 p.m. Saturday, the centre was near 20°N 23°W, with a central pressure near 1,005 .

How sure. All 52 show the storm, and they closely on its path.1

How strong. It is near its strongest now. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 1,010 by Monday.

What’s uncertain

Which way it turns. Six in 10 forecasts take a eastern track; the other four in 10 take a western track. By Monday night the two paths are about 400 kilometres apart.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the is about 600 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays near 20°N 23°W.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracks
NOAA
31 of 3112Z
Environment Canada
21 of 2112Z

Also tracking

  1. Bering Sea lowLikely to pass 20–320 km from Kodiak Sun evening; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 kmL-2026-0002
  2. September Nor’easterLikely to pass 20–140 km S of New York Sun afternoon; nearly all forecasts bring it within 160 kmNE-2026-01
  3. Ross Sea lowVery deep low bottoming out near 943 hPa Sat afternoon, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 103 forecasts show itL-2026-0057
  4. Bellingshausen Sea lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 hPa now and filling; nearly all forecasts show itL-2026-0064
  5. East Pacific tropical system off MexicoTropical system over the North Pacific, near 978 hPa now and filling; nearly all forecasts show itL-2026-0061
  6. See all 55 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 6 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. Cyclone tracks computed by WeatherNick from the model fields.
  8. Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, Environment Canada · 12Z run

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