StormArctic Ocean low · L-2026-0072
The Arctic Ocean low holds near 996 hPa as it heads north
Low bottoming out near 995 hPa Sun night, over the Arctic Ocean; nearly all forecasts show it.
Updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC · 103 from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment CanadaMedium confidence
Low bottoming out near 995 hPa Sun night, over the Arctic Ocean; nearly all forecasts show it.
Quick answers
As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC
- Where is the Arctic Ocean low going?
- The centre is over the Arctic Ocean, moving north at about 20 km/h. The most likely path takes it over the Arctic Ocean by Monday morning.
- How sure is the forecast?
- Medium confidence. 99 of 103 show the storm, and they on where it goes (agreement 37 out of 100).
- Do the AI and physics models agree?
- Largely, yes. By Monday morning the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 70 kilometres west of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 992 at its deepest.
- Will the Arctic Ocean low become a bomb cyclone?
- Unlikely. None of the 103 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).
What we know
Where it is. At 10 p.m. Saturday, the centre was over the Arctic Ocean, with a central pressure near 996 .
How sure. 99 of 103 show the storm, and they on where it goes.1
How strong. Forecasts keep its central pressure near 995 through Monday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .
What’s uncertain
Later on. The forecasts fan out after Monday. By Monday morning, the is about 650 kilometres across.2
When it arrives
No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays over the Arctic Ocean.
DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print
How strong it gets
Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.
(lower is stronger)
Where the forecasts come from
| Model | Tracks | |
|---|---|---|
NOAA | 31 of 31 | 12Z |
ECMWF | 47 of 51 | 12Z |
Environment Canada | 21 of 21 | 12Z |