Low near 997 hPa now, about 1,000 km SE of Norilsk and filling; all 103 ensemble forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC

Where is the low over Siberia going?: The centre is about 950 kilometres southeast of Norilsk, moving southeast at about 20 km/h. The most likely path takes it about 1,000 kilometres north of Irkutsk by Sunday afternoon.
How sure is the forecast?: High confidence. All 103 show the storm, and they closely on its path (agreement 100 out of 100).
Do the AI and physics models agree?: Largely, yes. By Sunday afternoon the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 60 kilometres southeast of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 994 at its deepest.
Will the low over Siberia become a bomb cyclone?: Unlikely. None of the 103 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

What we know

Where it is. At 10 p.m. Saturday, the centre was about 950 kilometres southeast of Norilsk, with a central pressure near 997 .

How sure. All 103 show the storm, and they closely on its path.¹

How strong. It is near its strongest now. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 1,007 by Sunday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

What’s uncertain

Later on. The forecasts stay fairly close together through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, the is about 200 kilometres across.²

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 950 kilometres southeast of Norilsk.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

Model	Tracks
NOAA	31 of 31	12Z
ECMWF	51 of 51	12Z
Environment Canada	21 of 21	12Z

The low over Siberia is near its strongest and will slowly weaken as it heads southeast