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Tropical systemEast Pacific tropical system off Mexico · L-2026-0056

The East Pacific tropical system off Mexico is near its strongest and will slowly weaken as it heads northwest

Tropical system near 987 mb now, about 350 mi SW of Cabo San Lucas and filling; 3 in 10 forecasts show it.

Updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC · 103 from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment CanadaMedium confidence

Tropical system near 987 mb now, about 350 mi SW of Cabo San Lucas and filling; 3 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC

Where is the East Pacific tropical system off Mexico going?
The centre is about 350 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, moving northwest at about 10 mph. The most likely path takes it about 230 miles west of Cabo San Lucas by Tuesday night.
How sure is the forecast?
Medium confidence. 31 of 103 show the storm, and they closely on its path (agreement 81 out of 100).
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Broadly, with some differences. By Wednesday night the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 170 miles northeast of the physics ensembles’. At its deepest, the AI ensembles take it to about 973 and the physics ensembles to about 976 mb.

What we know

Where it is. At 10 p.m. Saturday, the centre was about 350 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, with a central pressure near 987 .

How sure. 31 of 103 show the storm, and they closely on its path.1

How strong. It is near its strongest now. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 992 by Monday.

What’s uncertain

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Tuesday. By Friday evening, Oct. 2, the is about 1,200 miles across.2

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 350 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracks
NOAA
5 of 3112Z
ECMWF
5 of 5112Z
Environment Canada
21 of 2112Z

Also tracking

  1. Bering Sea lowLikely to pass 15–200 mi from Kodiak Sun evening; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 miL-2026-0002
  2. September Nor’easterLikely to pass 15–90 mi S of New York Sun afternoon; nearly all forecasts bring it within 100 miNE-2026-01
  3. Ross Sea lowVery deep low bottoming out near 943 mb Sat afternoon, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 103 forecasts show itL-2026-0057
  4. Bellingshausen Sea lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 mb now and filling; nearly all forecasts show itL-2026-0064
  5. East Pacific tropical system off MexicoTropical system over the North Pacific, near 978 mb now and filling; nearly all forecasts show itL-2026-0061
  6. See all 55 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), AIFS ENS (51), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 100 miles of a spot at any time in the next 10 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by WeatherNick from the model fields.
  9. Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, ECMWF, Environment Canada · 12Z run

Full forecast
Through Fri 6 p.m. UTC