Very deep low near 959 hPa now, in the South Atlantic and filling; 9 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC

Where is the Southern Ocean low in the South Atlantic going?: The centre is in the South Atlantic, moving southwest at about 20 km/h. The most likely path takes it in the South Atlantic by Sunday afternoon.
How sure is the forecast?: Medium confidence. 93 of 103 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path (agreement 63 out of 100).
Do the AI and physics models agree?: Largely, yes. By Sunday afternoon their middle tracks are almost on top of each other. Both take it to about 947 at its deepest.
Will the Southern Ocean low in the South Atlantic become a bomb cyclone?: Unlikely. None of the 103 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

What we know

Where it is. At 10 p.m. Saturday, the centre was in the South Atlantic, with a central pressure near 959 .

How sure. 93 of 103 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path.¹

How strong. It is near its strongest now. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 967 by Sunday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

Later on. The forecasts stay fairly close together through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, the is about 450 kilometres across.²

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays in the South Atlantic.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in