Very deep low bottoming out near 945 hPa Sun morning, about 1,350 km N of McMurdo Station; 9 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC

Where is the Southern Ocean low south of Australia going?: The centre is about 1,250 kilometres south of Macquarie Island, moving east at about 45 km/h. The most likely path takes it south of New Zealand by Monday morning.
How sure is the forecast?: Low confidence. 89 of 103 show the storm, and they on where it goes (agreement 0 out of 100).
Do the AI and physics models agree?: Largely, yes. By Monday morning the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 80 kilometres south of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 944 at its deepest.
Will the Southern Ocean low south of Australia become a bomb cyclone?: 1% of forecasts (fewer than 1 in 10) deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

What we know

Where it is. At 10 p.m. Saturday, the centre was about 1,250 kilometres south of Macquarie Island, with a central pressure near 947 .

How sure. 89 of 103 show the storm, and they on where it goes.¹

How strong. Forecasts keep its central pressure near 946 through Monday. Fewer than one in 10 forecasts make it a , deepening about 24 hectopascals or more in a day.

What’s uncertain

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Monday. By Monday morning, the is about 1,050 kilometres across.²

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 1,250 kilometres south of Macquarie Island.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

Model	Tracks
NOAA	28 of 31	12Z
ECMWF	44 of 51	12Z
Environment Canada	17 of 21	12Z

The Southern Ocean low south of Australia holds near 947 hPa as it heads east