Very deep low bottoming out near 943 hPa Sun afternoon, in the South Pacific; 9 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC

Where is the Southern Ocean low in the South Pacific going?: The centre is in the South Pacific, moving southeast at about 65 km/h. The most likely path takes it over the Amundsen Sea by Monday afternoon.
How sure is the forecast?: Low confidence. 96 of 103 show the storm, and they on where it goes (agreement 10 out of 100).
Do the AI and physics models agree?: Largely, yes. By Monday afternoon the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 120 kilometres northwest of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 943 at its deepest.
Will the Southern Ocean low in the South Pacific become a bomb cyclone?: 3% of forecasts (fewer than 1 in 10) deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

What we know

Where it is. At 10 p.m. Saturday, the centre was in the South Pacific, with a central pressure near 954 .

How sure. 96 of 103 show the storm, and they on where it goes.¹

How strong. It is still strengthening: forecasts deepen it to about 943 by Sunday afternoon. Fewer than one in 10 forecasts make it a , deepening about 24 hectopascals or more in a day.

What’s uncertain

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Monday. By Monday afternoon, the is about 1,000 kilometres across.²

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays in the South Pacific.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

Model	Tracks
NOAA	29 of 31	12Z
ECMWF	46 of 51	12Z
Environment Canada	21 of 21	12Z

The Southern Ocean low in the South Pacific is forecast to deepen to about 943 hPa on Sunday afternoon