{"schema_version":"1.0","id":"L-2026-0014","internal_id":"L-2026-0014","name":null,"aliases":[],"kind":"extratropical","basin":"NATL","status":"forecast","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","generated_at":"2026-09-26T19:10:52Z","sources":[{"model":"gefs","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":31,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T19:02:44Z"},{"model":"gfs","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":1,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T19:02:44Z"},{"model":"geps","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":20,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T18:16:06Z"},{"model":"cmc","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":1,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T18:16:06Z"}],"headline":{"text":"Weak low bottoming out near 1000 hPa Mon evening, about 700 km SE of Nuuk; 5 in 10 forecasts show it","confidence":"medium"},"p_storm":0.451,"agreement":51,"trend":{"vs_cycle":"2026-09-26T06:00:00Z","shift_km":25.5,"bearing_deg":246.9,"text":"Shifted 30 km southwest since 06z"},"flags":{"noreaster":false,"p_bomb":0.0,"min_pressure_hpa":{"p10":993.4,"p50":1000.0,"p90":1002.8}},"members":[{"model":"gefs","member":"p01","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[60.6,60.7,59.9,59.4,59.4,59.5],"lon":[-41.5,-40.7,-40.2,-39.8,-39.8,-39.7],"p":[1003.0,1003.0,1006.0,1008.0,1009.0,1007.0],"wind":[14.4,14.9,13.4,14.4,13.4,14.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p03","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[42,48,54,60,66],"lat":[60.6,60.6,60.5,60.0,59.2],"lon":[-41.8,-41.0,-40.4,-39.7,-39.1],"p":[1002.0,1000.0,999.0,1001.0,1002.0],"wind":[14.4,14.4,13.9,15.4,14.4]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p04","role":"perturbed","scenario":1,"t":[42,48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.6,60.5,60.1,59.1,58.9,58.4],"lon":[-41.8,-40.6,-39.9,-39.6,-35.4,-29.5],"p":[1000.0,998.0,998.0,1001.0,1002.0,993.0],"wind":[14.9,13.9,16.5,15.9,13.4,18.0]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p06","role":"perturbed","scenario":1,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.4,60.4,60.2,59.3,59.2],"lon":[-42.1,-41.3,-40.8,-36.5,-30.6],"p":[1003.0,1002.0,1005.0,1005.0,996.0],"wind":[13.4,12.3,10.3,13.4,18.5]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p07","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[60.7,60.8,60.2,59.6,59.1,58.9],"lon":[-41.3,-40.4,-40.2,-39.8,-38.7,-33.8],"p":[1003.0,1003.0,1006.0,1007.0,1008.0,1006.0],"wind":[13.9,12.9,13.4,12.3,10.3,15.4]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p09","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[61.0,60.9,60.0,59.3,59.0,60.1],"lon":[-40.9,-40.7,-40.8,-40.2,-35.6,-29.3],"p":[1002.0,1001.0,1004.0,1005.0,1007.0,997.0],"wind":[13.4,14.4,12.9,12.3,11.8,18.0]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p10","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.4,60.4,60.0,59.7,59.1],"lon":[-41.7,-40.8,-40.3,-39.7,-35.0],"p":[1003.0,1004.0,1006.0,1007.0,1006.0],"wind":[13.9,12.3,11.8,10.8,14.4]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p12","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[42,48,54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[61.8,60.9,60.2,59.5,59.1,58.7,57.9],"lon":[-41.0,-40.7,-40.2,-39.5,-39.2,-38.7,-34.0],"p":[1001.0,998.0,998.0,1002.0,1005.0,1007.0,1007.0],"wind":[14.9,17.5,18.5,15.4,12.3,11.3,16.5]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p13","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[60.4,60.1,59.6,58.9,58.2,57.9],"lon":[-41.3,-40.7,-40.0,-39.5,-39.2,-38.1],"p":[1001.0,999.0,1000.0,1002.0,1005.0,1005.0],"wind":[15.4,15.4,14.9,13.4,11.3,10.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p14","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[60.5,60.3,59.9,59.7,59.8,59.9],"lon":[-42.1,-41.3,-40.6,-40.0,-39.8,-40.0],"p":[1002.0,1000.0,1002.0,1004.0,1006.0,1005.0],"wind":[14.4,14.9,11.8,11.8,12.9,12.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p15","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.8,60.9,60.9,60.3,60.3],"lon":[-41.6,-40.8,-40.2,-39.8,-35.2],"p":[1003.0,1002.0,1002.0,1003.0,1003.0],"wind":[14.4,12.9,12.3,13.4,13.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p16","role":"perturbed","scenario":1,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.3,59.9,59.3,59.5,59.7],"lon":[-41.4,-40.8,-39.7,-34.9,-28.6],"p":[1001.0,998.0,1000.0,1001.0,996.0],"wind":[15.9,14.9,13.4,10.8,11.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p17","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78,84],"lat":[60.5,60.4,60.1,59.8,59.5,60.3,60.0],"lon":[-42.1,-41.1,-40.4,-39.7,-39.7,-34.8,-28.0],"p":[1001.0,1000.0,1001.0,1002.0,1001.0,999.0,978.0],"wind":[15.4,14.4,11.8,11.3,11.8,17.5,23.1]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p18","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[42,48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.5,60.1,59.8,59.1,58.6,57.5],"lon":[-41.9,-41.4,-40.9,-41.0,-36.7,-30.7],"p":[1001.0,999.0,998.0,1002.0,1004.0,997.0],"wind":[15.4,15.9,13.4,13.9,11.8,15.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p19","role":"perturbed","scenario":1,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.2,60.1,59.5,58.8,59.4],"lon":[-41.7,-40.8,-39.8,-35.1,-29.0],"p":[1004.0,1003.0,1003.0,1001.0,984.0],"wind":[13.4,14.9,13.4,15.9,17.5]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p21","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.3,60.1,59.6,59.5,59.6],"lon":[-42.2,-41.6,-41.0,-40.8,-41.3],"p":[1001.0,1001.0,1004.0,1005.0,1006.0],"wind":[14.4,12.9,10.8,9.3,10.8]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p22","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.4,60.5,59.9,59.2,58.5],"lon":[-41.8,-40.6,-39.8,-38.3,-37.1],"p":[1004.0,1002.0,1003.0,1004.0,1006.0],"wind":[15.4,13.9,14.4,11.8,9.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p25","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.4,60.4,60.0,59.2,58.6],"lon":[-41.9,-41.0,-40.5,-39.7,-39.1],"p":[1003.0,1001.0,1000.0,1001.0,1003.0],"wind":[14.9,13.9,14.4,14.9,12.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p27","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[42,48,54,60,66,72,78,84,90],"lat":[60.9,60.4,60.3,60.0,59.8,59.9,59.9,59.5,58.4],"lon":[-41.7,-41.3,-40.6,-39.9,-39.3,-38.8,-38.3,-37.5,-32.8],"p":[1003.0,1002.0,1001.0,1002.0,1003.0,1003.0,1002.0,1002.0,1000.0],"wind":[13.9,15.4,14.9,12.9,11.3,10.8,12.9,12.3,10.8]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p28","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78,84],"lat":[60.9,60.7,60.3,60.3,60.6,60.9,60.6],"lon":[-41.7,-41.2,-40.8,-40.4,-40.2,-39.8,-39.7],"p":[1001.0,1000.0,1004.0,1005.0,1008.0,1007.0,1008.0],"wind":[12.9,13.9,10.3,9.3,10.3,11.8,14.4]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p29","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[60.5,60.6,60.4,60.4,60.3],"lon":[-41.6,-40.5,-39.9,-39.4,-39.4],"p":[1000.0,1001.0,1001.0,1000.0,1000.0],"wind":[14.9,14.4,12.9,14.4,15.9]},{"model":"geps","member":"p01","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.4,60.1,59.4,57.6,55.9],"lon":[-41.0,-40.8,-41.3,-37.4,-31.7],"p":[1003.0,1002.0,1004.0,1005.0,995.0],"wind":[14.4,12.3,13.4,12.3,22.6]},{"model":"geps","member":"p02","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78,84],"lat":[60.7,60.6,59.9,59.6,59.7,59.6,59.4],"lon":[-42.2,-41.2,-40.8,-40.9,-41.2,-40.6,-35.6],"p":[1003.0,1002.0,1004.0,1006.0,1007.0,1007.0,1008.0],"wind":[14.4,14.4,12.9,10.8,10.3,10.8,10.3]}],"scenarios":[{"id":0,"label":"Slower track","share":0.826,"n":19,"medoid":{"model":"gefs","member":"p03"},"track":{"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78],"lat":[60.5,60.4,60.0,59.5,59.25,59.9],"lon":[-41.55,-40.8,-40.4,-39.7,-38.95,-38.3],"p":[1002.0,1001.0,1002.0,1004.0,1006.0,1005.0],"wind":[14.4,13.9,13.4,12.3,11.8,14.9]},"cone":{"level":0.67,"calibrated":false,"inflation":1.2,"ellipses":[{"t":48,"lat":60.56,"lon":-41.54,"a_km":53.2,"b_km":50.0,"angle_deg":40.9},{"t":54,"lat":60.43,"lon":-40.87,"a_km":59.2,"b_km":50.0,"angle_deg":7.3},{"t":60,"lat":59.94,"lon":-40.4,"a_km":82.4,"b_km":50.0,"angle_deg":10.3},{"t":66,"lat":59.44,"lon":-39.47,"a_km":154.0,"b_km":63.4,"angle_deg":142.9},{"t":72,"lat":59.13,"lon":-37.78,"a_km":354.1,"b_km":146.4,"angle_deg":121.9},{"t":78,"lat":59.61,"lon":-37.06,"a_km":363.5,"b_km":187.7,"angle_deg":97.7}],"polygon":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-33.9,57.12],[-35.02,57.15],[-35.65,57.22],[-37.02,57.46],[-41.31,58.55],[-41.9,58.74],[-42.41,58.94],[-42.83,59.15],[-43.14,59.37],[-43.36,59.6],[-43.46,59.82],[-43.46,60.05],[-43.18,60.66],[-43.05,60.82],[-42.83,60.95],[-42.52,61.05],[-42.13,61.12],[-39.09,61.32],[-37.45,61.32],[-35.78,61.21],[-34.97,61.11],[-34.19,60.99],[-32.8,60.67],[-32.21,60.48],[-31.7,60.28],[-31.29,60.06],[-30.97,59.84],[-30.76,59.62],[-30.65,59.39],[-30.65,59.17],[-30.77,58.96],[-32.52,57.45],[-32.74,57.32],[-33.05,57.22],[-33.44,57.15],[-33.9,57.12]]]}}},{"id":1,"label":"Faster track","share":0.174,"n":4,"medoid":{"model":"gefs","member":"p19"},"track":{"t":[48,54,60,66,72],"lat":[60.35,60.1,59.4,59.1,59.3],"lon":[-41.55,-40.8,-39.75,-35.25,-29.25],"p":[1002.0,1000.0,1002.0,1001.5,994.5],"wind":[13.6,14.9,13.4,13.4,17.7]},"cone":null}],"swath":{"radius_km":160.0,"window_h":48.0,"levels":[0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9],"contours":[{"level":0.1,"geometry":{"type":"MultiPolygon","coordinates":[[[[-40.7,57.75],[-40.25,57.64],[-39.75,57.6],[-39.25,57.46],[-38.75,57.39],[-38.25,57.26],[-37.75,57.34],[-37.25,57.26],[-36.25,57.26],[-35.25,57.4],[-34.75,57.42],[-34.25,57.36],[-33.75,57.43],[-32.75,57.43],[-32.25,57.27],[-31.77,57.75],[-31.25,58.1],[-30.25,58.14],[-29.8,58.25],[-29.25,58.52],[-28.75,58.52],[-28.3,58.75],[-27.8,59.25],[-28.75,60.2],[-31.25,60.2],[-32.25,60.23],[-32.75,60.48],[-33.75,60.64],[-34.25,60.67],[-35.75,60.67],[-36.25,60.94],[-36.75,60.99],[-37.53,61.25],[-37.75,61.36],[-38.25,61.69],[-39.25,62.1],[-39.75,62.18],[-40.75,62.25],[-41.75,62.25],[-42.25,62.21],[-42.75,62.12],[-43.25,62.08],[-43.75,61.75],[-44.25,61.54],[-44.56,61.25],[-44.75,60.84],[-44.82,60.75],[-44.89,60.25],[-44.52,59.75],[-44.25,59.5],[-43.83,59.25],[-43.75,59.16],[-43.25,58.82],[-42.74,58.75],[-42.04,58.25],[-41.75,57.96],[-41.25,57.83],[-40.7,57.75]]]]}},{"level":0.3,"geometry":{"type":"MultiPolygon","coordinates":[[[[-40.75,58.28],[-39.75,58.17],[-39.25,58.21],[-38.75,58.12],[-38.25,58.1],[-37.75,58.19],[-37.25,58.19],[-36.9,58.25],[-36.75,58.33],[-36.32,58.75],[-36.58,59.75],[-36.75,59.87],[-37.04,60.25],[-37.25,60.37],[-37.69,60.75],[-38.25,61.11],[-38.54,61.25],[-39.25,61.51],[-39.75,61.59],[-40.25,61.78],[-40.75,61.91],[-41.75,61.91],[-42.25,61.87],[-42.96,61.75],[-44.01,61.25],[-44.25,60.92],[-44.33,60.75],[-44.37,60.25],[-44.25,60.08],[-43.92,59.75],[-43.75,59.64],[-43.25,59.42],[-43.01,59.25],[-42.75,59.12],[-42.25,58.95],[-41.75,58.66],[-41.25,58.52],[-40.75,58.28]]]]}}],"grid":{"west":-46.0,"north":64.0,"dlon":0.5,"dlat":0.5,"nlon":44,"nlat":21,"values":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,2,8,10,10,10,8,8,6,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,10,25,33,37,39,39,39,31,24,20,14,8,4,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,24,37,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,43,41,33,25,12,8,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,2,2,2,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,12,33,43,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,43,41,31,20,16,14,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,6,6,6,6,8,8,8,8,8,6,6,6,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,14,35,41,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,43,39,33,25,22,22,22,22,22,18,14,12,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,8,8,8,8,4,2,2,0,0,0,0,2,20,35,43,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,41,39,31,27,25,24,24,22,22,22,20,16,14,12,12,12,12,12,12,10,8,8,8,6,4,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,12,24,37,43,45,45,45,45,45,45,45,43,41,39,33,27,27,27,27,25,25,25,20,20,18,16,14,12,12,12,12,12,10,8,6,6,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,8,10,22,33,37,39,39,39,39,39,37,35,33,33,29,25,24,24,22,22,22,20,18,16,16,16,16,14,12,12,10,8,8,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4,6,16,22,29,31,33,31,35,35,31,31,29,27,27,25,25,24,20,20,18,18,18,12,12,12,10,8,8,4,4,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6,8,10,12,12,16,16,18,20,20,18,20,22,20,18,18,14,14,14,14,10,6,6,4,4,4,4,4,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,4,6,6,8,10,8,10,10,10,8,6,6,8,8,8,8,10,10,8,4,4,4,4,4,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,4,4,4,4,4,4,2,4,4,4,6,6,6,6,4,4,4,4,4,4,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,4,4,4,4,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,2,2,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]}},"cities":[],"plume":{"t":[42,48,54,60,66,72,78],"p10":[1000.4,999.1,998.0,1000.2,1001.0,995.1,999.0],"p50":[1001.0,1002.0,1001.0,1002.0,1004.0,1004.0,1005.0],"p90":[1002.6,1003.0,1003.0,1005.8,1006.8,1007.9,1007.0],"min":[1000.0,998.0,998.0,1000.0,1001.0,984.0,997.0],"max":[1003.0,1004.0,1004.0,1006.0,1008.0,1009.0,1007.0]},"attribution":["NOAA/NCEP/EMC","Environment and Climate Change Canada"]}